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分析師說,今年最好投資這個國家的股票

分析師說,今年最好投資這個國家的股票

Shawn Tully 2021年03月30日
英國不僅提供定價最低的股票,它還是一個成熟的發達國家,市場波動遠低于發展中國家。

目前,專業投資者當中的主流觀點是,美國大盤股定價過高,但按照當前的超低利率依舊很劃算,而尋找便宜的投資目標最好是去新興市場。前提是你不擔心在俄羅斯、土耳其和巴西持有部分股票所面臨的風險。但你是否相信全球定價最低的主要市場是英國市場?按照現金流收益率等所有標準指標計算,英國不僅提供定價最低的股票,它還是一個成熟的發達國家,市場波動遠低于發展中國家。Research Affiliates公司的首席執行官羅伯·阿諾特稱:“英國股市是2020年代首選的投資目標?!痹摴緸閮r值1,570億美元的共同基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)設計投資策略。

阿諾特和同事維塔利·卡萊斯尼克、莉莉安·吳在最近發表的文章中,提出了投資英國股票的充分理由。他們指出,英國脫歐(Brexit)造成的混亂以及比美國等國家更為嚴重的新冠疫情封鎖措施,使英國經濟接連受創,導致經濟和市場均陷入低迷。這兩件事情的影響正在快速消退,但英國低迷的股價并沒有表現出強勢反彈的跡象。文章的作者寫道:“大部分投資者對當前發生的事件感到震驚,但令人意外的是很少有人問:‘這在未來五年是否還會有影響?’”股價上漲已經在醞釀當中,現在就是進場的好時機。

英國股市多年來持續低迷

英國股市自2015年4月創多年新高以后,一直在持續震蕩,到2019年年底僅上漲了4%??ㄈR斯尼克表示:“英國面臨無協議脫歐的風險。英國是歐盟的重要貿易合作伙伴。雙邊互加關稅的結果可能產生糟糕的影響?!睔W盟似乎決心通過懲罰英國,向有意脫離歐盟的任何國家展示這樣做的嚴重后果。英國股價體現出這種災難性后果極有可能發生。隨著英國無協議脫歐的威脅持續到2020年,新冠疫情危機又令英國經濟雪上加霜。英國是全球疫情最嚴重的國家之一,危險的新變異病毒的出現讓情況變得更復雜。截至2021年2月,英國與意大利的新冠死亡病例人數不相上下,按照人口相對數計算,在所有發達國家中排在首位。

這種雙重危機令這個重大經濟體在去年遭受了最嚴重的損失。英國國民收入萎縮11.2%,是下降幅度最大的發達國家。英國國民收入的下降幅度甚至比印度高1.3個百分點,比歐元區高3.4個百分點,比美國高出三倍。經濟的突然變化對股市產生了影響。2020年,標普500指數(S&P 500)上漲了16.2%,富時100指數(FTSE 100)卻下跌了14.3%。

英國得到了滿意的脫歐協議,并正從疫情中快速復蘇

疫情肆虐似乎幫助英國避開了可能對其極其不利的脫歐協議??ㄈR斯尼克說:“政治人物更愿意接受更溫和的情景。新冠疫情帶來了幫助,因為他們認為在這時候阻礙英國經濟發展并不是恰當的時機?!彪p方在2020年圣誕節前夜達成協議,允許英國繼續留在由27個歐盟成員國組成的商品自由貿易區。雖然該協議中不包括服務,而且倫敦的銀行業務也流失到了法蘭克福和都柏林等地,但英國依舊是一個充滿活力的全球金融服務中心。

不過英國在全民接種疫苗方面,卻并沒有像歐洲大陸的鄰國那樣陷入嚴重僵局。截至3月21日,已經有超過2,800萬英國民眾至少接種了一劑疫苗,這意味著每100位英國居民當中就有44人接種了疫苗,接種率僅次于以色列,高于美國的34%。65歲及以上的老年人已經有接近80%接種了一劑疫苗,而且截至7月中旬,幾乎所有居民都有機會至少接種一劑疫苗。新增病例的增速也已經下降到全球最低。

然而英國依舊在實行嚴格的封鎖措施,所有餐廳和非必要商店都已經停止營業,部分原因是政府擔心會從疫情嚴重的法國等國家輸入感染病例。但經濟復蘇可能比幾個月前專家們的預測提前到來。Research Affliliates根據國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和經濟合作與發展組織(OECD)的數據預測,英國GDP今年的增長率為4.2%,2022年為4.1%,均高于歐元區的3.7%和3.3%。

目前,市場情緒已經從悲觀轉向謹慎樂觀。從2021年年初以來,富時指數(FTSE)上漲了3.9%,與美股指數的漲幅基本相當。

英國股票的預期收益率全球最高,主要原因是定價較低

英國值得投資的一個主要原因是:英國股市占主導地位的上市公司主要來自制造業、能源、電信和金融服務等傳統的經濟支柱產業。該指數中的大盤股包括英國石油(BP)、荷蘭皇家殼牌公司(Royal Dutch Shell)、沃達豐(Vodafone)、英國電信(British Telecom)、巴克萊(Barclays)和匯豐銀行(HSBC)等。這些股票都屬于價值股,十多年來它們的表現一直落后于大盤。所以在購買英國股票時,你可能會遇到定價比實際價值低一倍的股票:這些價值股的定價一直較低,而且英國脫歐和新冠疫情的沖擊導致這些股票的價格進一步下跌。

衡量全球股票定價過高、過低還是合理,有一個很好的衡量指標是股價與現金流的比率。Research Affiliates使用了息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)代表現金流。英國股票目前的市場價格,是公司前五年平均年現金流的6.9倍。換言之,投資者為一股股票每支付100美元,可以獲得14.50美元息稅折舊攤銷前利潤。所有發達國家以及美國的股價與現金流比率約為12倍,比英國的6.9倍高了近一倍。新興市場的股票確實價格便宜,但其股價與現金流比率為8.6倍,依舊比英國股票高25%。

另外,英國的股價與現金流比率也遠低于其歷史水平。英國股市歷史上約88%的時間,股價與現金流比率都高于當前的水平??ㄈR斯尼克認為,這是一個明顯的信號。他說,你能夠預想到這個比率會持續升高,因為美國等主要市場的市盈率倍數得益于現在的超低利率。如果投資者決定賦予英國股票這種通常在超低利率環境下較為合理的高估值,這種轉變就會提高英國股票的收益。

即便這種情況不會發生,按照最保守的假設,未來幾年,英國股票仍然有望實現全球最高收益率。Research Affiliates預測,未來十年,英國股票的年度總收益率將為8.1%,其中股息率為3.25%,4.1%來自收益率增長,0.8%來自低于平均水平的市盈率倍數上漲。這高于新興市場7.8%的年度收益率預測,比美股高1.9%,但這點差距不足以與通貨膨脹抗衡。

如果脫離歐盟可以促進經濟增長,股市將帶來更高回報

8%的收益率預測是極有可能實現的,原因是英國股價足夠便宜。低價格帶來的股息收益率遠高于美股,適中的倍數使市盈率很有可能逐步上漲。如果英國擺脫歐盟的約束之后能夠鼓勵創業,英國股市就將有較大的上漲空間。

阿諾特說:“許多投資者現在并沒有考慮這一點?!蓖顿Y者的普遍觀點是一切都很糟糕,英國企業不會搬離到其他地方。但這并不是英國股票價格低廉的原因?!?/p>

他繼續指出,英國經濟缺乏活力,并且這種狀況已經持續了很長時間。但英國脫歐可以給英國注入活力,讓其變成“歐洲的新加坡”。阿諾德稱:“這絕不是白日做夢。擺脫了歐盟法規的約束,避免了可怕的成本,英國有望效仿亞洲虎的做法?!边@是最樂觀的情況。即便英國只是恢復到疫情之前乃至于脫歐之前的樣子,與任何看起來更有吸引力但價格過高的市場相比,投資者依舊能夠在英國獲得更高的回報,賺到豐厚的收益。(財富中文網)

翻譯:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

目前,專業投資者當中的主流觀點是,美國大盤股定價過高,但按照當前的超低利率依舊很劃算,而尋找便宜的投資目標最好是去新興市場。前提是你不擔心在俄羅斯、土耳其和巴西持有部分股票所面臨的風險。但你是否相信全球定價最低的主要市場是英國市場?按照現金流收益率等所有標準指標計算,英國不僅提供定價最低的股票,它還是一個成熟的發達國家,市場波動遠低于發展中國家。Research Affiliates公司的首席執行官羅伯·阿諾特稱:“英國股市是2020年代首選的投資目標?!痹摴緸閮r值1,570億美元的共同基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)設計投資策略。

阿諾特和同事維塔利·卡萊斯尼克、莉莉安·吳在最近發表的文章中,提出了投資英國股票的充分理由。他們指出,英國脫歐(Brexit)造成的混亂以及比美國等國家更為嚴重的新冠疫情封鎖措施,使英國經濟接連受創,導致經濟和市場均陷入低迷。這兩件事情的影響正在快速消退,但英國低迷的股價并沒有表現出強勢反彈的跡象。文章的作者寫道:“大部分投資者對當前發生的事件感到震驚,但令人意外的是很少有人問:‘這在未來五年是否還會有影響?’”股價上漲已經在醞釀當中,現在就是進場的好時機。

英國股市多年來持續低迷

英國股市自2015年4月創多年新高以后,一直在持續震蕩,到2019年年底僅上漲了4%??ㄈR斯尼克表示:“英國面臨無協議脫歐的風險。英國是歐盟的重要貿易合作伙伴。雙邊互加關稅的結果可能產生糟糕的影響?!睔W盟似乎決心通過懲罰英國,向有意脫離歐盟的任何國家展示這樣做的嚴重后果。英國股價體現出這種災難性后果極有可能發生。隨著英國無協議脫歐的威脅持續到2020年,新冠疫情危機又令英國經濟雪上加霜。英國是全球疫情最嚴重的國家之一,危險的新變異病毒的出現讓情況變得更復雜。截至2021年2月,英國與意大利的新冠死亡病例人數不相上下,按照人口相對數計算,在所有發達國家中排在首位。

這種雙重危機令這個重大經濟體在去年遭受了最嚴重的損失。英國國民收入萎縮11.2%,是下降幅度最大的發達國家。英國國民收入的下降幅度甚至比印度高1.3個百分點,比歐元區高3.4個百分點,比美國高出三倍。經濟的突然變化對股市產生了影響。2020年,標普500指數(S&P 500)上漲了16.2%,富時100指數(FTSE 100)卻下跌了14.3%。

英國得到了滿意的脫歐協議,并正從疫情中快速復蘇

疫情肆虐似乎幫助英國避開了可能對其極其不利的脫歐協議??ㄈR斯尼克說:“政治人物更愿意接受更溫和的情景。新冠疫情帶來了幫助,因為他們認為在這時候阻礙英國經濟發展并不是恰當的時機?!彪p方在2020年圣誕節前夜達成協議,允許英國繼續留在由27個歐盟成員國組成的商品自由貿易區。雖然該協議中不包括服務,而且倫敦的銀行業務也流失到了法蘭克福和都柏林等地,但英國依舊是一個充滿活力的全球金融服務中心。

不過英國在全民接種疫苗方面,卻并沒有像歐洲大陸的鄰國那樣陷入嚴重僵局。截至3月21日,已經有超過2,800萬英國民眾至少接種了一劑疫苗,這意味著每100位英國居民當中就有44人接種了疫苗,接種率僅次于以色列,高于美國的34%。65歲及以上的老年人已經有接近80%接種了一劑疫苗,而且截至7月中旬,幾乎所有居民都有機會至少接種一劑疫苗。新增病例的增速也已經下降到全球最低。

然而英國依舊在實行嚴格的封鎖措施,所有餐廳和非必要商店都已經停止營業,部分原因是政府擔心會從疫情嚴重的法國等國家輸入感染病例。但經濟復蘇可能比幾個月前專家們的預測提前到來。Research Affliliates根據國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和經濟合作與發展組織(OECD)的數據預測,英國GDP今年的增長率為4.2%,2022年為4.1%,均高于歐元區的3.7%和3.3%。

目前,市場情緒已經從悲觀轉向謹慎樂觀。從2021年年初以來,富時指數(FTSE)上漲了3.9%,與美股指數的漲幅基本相當。

英國股票的預期收益率全球最高,主要原因是定價較低

英國值得投資的一個主要原因是:英國股市占主導地位的上市公司主要來自制造業、能源、電信和金融服務等傳統的經濟支柱產業。該指數中的大盤股包括英國石油(BP)、荷蘭皇家殼牌公司(Royal Dutch Shell)、沃達豐(Vodafone)、英國電信(British Telecom)、巴克萊(Barclays)和匯豐銀行(HSBC)等。這些股票都屬于價值股,十多年來它們的表現一直落后于大盤。所以在購買英國股票時,你可能會遇到定價比實際價值低一倍的股票:這些價值股的定價一直較低,而且英國脫歐和新冠疫情的沖擊導致這些股票的價格進一步下跌。

衡量全球股票定價過高、過低還是合理,有一個很好的衡量指標是股價與現金流的比率。Research Affiliates使用了息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)代表現金流。英國股票目前的市場價格,是公司前五年平均年現金流的6.9倍。換言之,投資者為一股股票每支付100美元,可以獲得14.50美元息稅折舊攤銷前利潤。所有發達國家以及美國的股價與現金流比率約為12倍,比英國的6.9倍高了近一倍。新興市場的股票確實價格便宜,但其股價與現金流比率為8.6倍,依舊比英國股票高25%。

另外,英國的股價與現金流比率也遠低于其歷史水平。英國股市歷史上約88%的時間,股價與現金流比率都高于當前的水平??ㄈR斯尼克認為,這是一個明顯的信號。他說,你能夠預想到這個比率會持續升高,因為美國等主要市場的市盈率倍數得益于現在的超低利率。如果投資者決定賦予英國股票這種通常在超低利率環境下較為合理的高估值,這種轉變就會提高英國股票的收益。

即便這種情況不會發生,按照最保守的假設,未來幾年,英國股票仍然有望實現全球最高收益率。Research Affiliates預測,未來十年,英國股票的年度總收益率將為8.1%,其中股息率為3.25%,4.1%來自收益率增長,0.8%來自低于平均水平的市盈率倍數上漲。這高于新興市場7.8%的年度收益率預測,比美股高1.9%,但這點差距不足以與通貨膨脹抗衡。

如果脫離歐盟可以促進經濟增長,股市將帶來更高回報

8%的收益率預測是極有可能實現的,原因是英國股價足夠便宜。低價格帶來的股息收益率遠高于美股,適中的倍數使市盈率很有可能逐步上漲。如果英國擺脫歐盟的約束之后能夠鼓勵創業,英國股市就將有較大的上漲空間。

阿諾特說:“許多投資者現在并沒有考慮這一點?!蓖顿Y者的普遍觀點是一切都很糟糕,英國企業不會搬離到其他地方。但這并不是英國股票價格低廉的原因?!?/p>

他繼續指出,英國經濟缺乏活力,并且這種狀況已經持續了很長時間。但英國脫歐可以給英國注入活力,讓其變成“歐洲的新加坡”。阿諾德稱:“這絕不是白日做夢。擺脫了歐盟法規的約束,避免了可怕的成本,英國有望效仿亞洲虎的做法?!边@是最樂觀的情況。即便英國只是恢復到疫情之前乃至于脫歐之前的樣子,與任何看起來更有吸引力但價格過高的市場相比,投資者依舊能夠在英國獲得更高的回報,賺到豐厚的收益。(財富中文網)

翻譯:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

The reigning view among investment professionals is that U.S. big caps are richly priced, though still good buys at these super-low interest rates, and the best ground for bargain hunting is the emerging markets. That's assuming you don't mind the rocky ride from parking part of your portfolio in Russia, Turkey, and Brazil. But would you believe that the world's cheapest major market is none other than the United Kingdom? The U.K. offers not just the lowest prices measured by all the standard metrics such as cash flow to earnings, it's also a developed, sophisticated economy that's far less volatile than developing nations. "The U.K. is the trade of the 2020s," declares Rob Arnott, chief of Research Affiliates, a firm that designs investment strategies for $157 billion in mutual funds and ETFs.

In a recent article, Arnott, and colleagues Vitali Kalesnik and Lillian Wu make a strong case for U.K. equities. They note that the island nation's economy sustained a one-two punch that's flattened its economy and its markets: the upheaval from its Brexit split from the E.U., and a COVID lockdown far more severe than in the U.S. and elsewhere. The damage from both are waning fast, but the strong comeback isn't remotely mirrored in the U.K.'s still beaten-down share prices. "Most investors are transfixed by current events, but surprisingly few will ask: 'Will these matter much in five years?'" the authors write. The lift-off is underway, and the time to board is now.

The U.K. market's done poorly for years

After hitting a multi-year high in April of 2015, U.K. shares zigzagged but went nowhere, rising just over 4% in by the close of 2019. "The U.K. faced the looming danger of a no-deal Brexit," says Kalesnik. "The U.K. is a huge trading partner with the EU. An outcome imposing tariffs on both sides would have been a bad result." Brussels had seemed determined to punish the U.K. to show that any departing nation would receive tough treatment. U.K. stock prices reflected the high probability of a catastrophic outcome. As the Brexit threat dragged into 2020, the COVID crisis dealt the economy a second crushing blow. The U.K. suffered one of the world's worst outbreaks, compounded by the rise of dangerous new strains. By February 2021, the U.K. stood in a tie with Italy for enduring the largest number of COVID-related deaths, relative its population, among all developed nations.

The twin crises caused the deepest damage suffered by any major economy last year. The U.K.'s national income shrank by 11.2%, the sharpest fall in the developed world. The decline exceeded the pullback in India by 1.3 points and the Euro Area by 3.4 points, and was three times steeper than in the U.S. The cataclysm took its toll on stocks. While the S&P 500 gained 16.2% in 2020, the FTSE 100 retreated 14.3%.

Surprise! The U.K. got a good Brexit deal, and is staging a quick recovery from the pandemic

The pandemic's ravages appear to have helped the U.K. skirt a potentially damaging accord with the E.U. "Politicians were more amenable to a softer scenario," says Kalesnik. "COVID helped, because they saw it as the wrong time to hobble the U.K. economy." The agreement reached on Christmas Eve of 2020 allows the U.K. to remain in the tariff-free zone for trading goods that encompasses the E.U.'s 27 member nations. Although services are excluded and while London has lost banking business to the likes of Frankfurt and Dublin, the U.K. remains a vibrant global hub for financial services.

The U.K. also sidestepped its continental neighbors' severe logjams in getting its people vaccinated. As of March 21, over 28 million Brits have received at least one dose, which means its vaccination record of 44 for every 100 residents, is second only to Israel, and beats the U.S. which is at 34 per hundred. No fewer than 80% of folks 65 or older have gotten a stab, and by mid-July, almost all residents should have had the opportunity to receive at least the first shot. The rate of new cases is among the world's lowest.

The U.K. remains in a tight lockdown that's shuttered all restaurants and non-essential shops, in part because the government fears that infections may migrate from France and other nations where COVID rages on. But the the route to a recovery from the pandemic may be coming into view much earlier than the experts predicted just a few months ago. Using IMF and OECD data, Research Affliliates predicts that the U.K. will grow GDP by 4.2% this year and 4.1% in 2022, beating the Euro Area's 3.7% and 3.3%.

The markets are already turning from gloom to guarded optimism. Since the start of 2021, the FTSE has waxed 3.9%, more or less matching the U.S.

Expected returns on U.K. stocks are the best in world––mainly 'cause they're so cheap

A big reason that U.K.'s such a deal: Its dominant companies are mostly old economy stalwarts in manufacturing, energy, telecom, and financial services. Among its biggest names are BP and Royal Dutch Shell, Vodafone, British Telecom, Barclays, and HSBC. Those are value plays, and a category that's underperformed growth for over a decade. So in buying British stocks, you're getting shares that are doubly underpriced: They've long been cheap as part of the value bucket, and got an extra markdown via the hit from Brexit and COVID.

An excellent metric for gauging whether stocks around the globe are richly, lowly or reasonably priced is the ratio of price to cash flow. Research Affiliates uses the cash flow proxy EBITDA. U.K. stocks are now selling for a remarkable 6.9 times their companies' average annual cash flow over the previous five years. In other words, they're generating $14.50 in EBITDA for every $100 investors pay for a share. That multiple's 50% cheaper than the figure of around 12 for both developed world overall, and the U.S. Emerging markets, justifiably renowned as a bargain, are 25% more expensive than the U.K. at a price-to-cash flow of 8.6.

The U.K. multiple is also exceptionally low versus history. It's been higher in around 88% of past periods. That's a great sign, says Kalesnik. You'd expect the ratio to be much loftier, he says, since today's ultra-low rates are pumping multiples in the U.S. and other major markets. If investors decide to bestow the kind of valuations usually accorded in a super-low rate environment, the shift would supercharge U.K. returns.

Even assuming that doesn't happen, and making extremely conservative assumptions, U.K. stocks promise the world's biggest gains in the years ahead. Research Affiliates forecasts that over the next decade, they'll deliver total, annual returns of 8.1% a year, consisting of 3.25% in dividends, 4.1% from earnings growth, and 0.8% from an increase in their price-to-earnings multiple from below-average levels. That edges emerging markets at 7.8% projected yearly gains, and pummels the U.S. at 1.9%, a trifle that's unlikely to match inflation.

Bigger gains could come if freedom from the E.U. jumpstarts growth

The reason returns in the 8% range are highly probable: U.K. shares are so cheap. The low prices provide a dividend yield far higher than in the U.S., and the modest multiple makes a gradual rise in the P/E practically a sure thing. The big upside would come if the U.K. break from the E.U.'s strictures acts an a tonic for entrepreneurship.

"That not what a lot of investors think now," says Arnott. "The general perception is that everything is horrible, that U.K. companies aren't going anywhere. But it's that narrative that makes them so cheap."

He goes on to say that the U.K. economy isn't vibrant, and hasn't been for a long time. But that Brexit could furnish the energy to make the U.K. what he calls "The Singapore of Europe." "It isn't a pipe dream," says Arnott. "Unencumbered by E.U. regulations and horrific costs, they could follow in the footsteps of an Asian tiger." That's just the the upside scenario. If Britain simply returns to the pre-COVID, pre-Brexit U.K. of old, investors will prosper more than in any of the sexier markets where prices are exorbitant, and the big money's been made.

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